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09 June 2011 ,
Written by Dhruv Tanwar
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The fifth annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2010-2015) has predicted that the number of network-connected devices surpass 15 billion, twice the world's population, by 2015.
Cisco also said that the total amount of global Internet traffic will quadruple by 2015 and reach 966 exabytes per year, growing 200 exabytes between 2014 and 2015 alone, which is greater than the total amount of Internet Protocol traffic generated globally in 2010.
On the verge of hitting the 1 zettabyte mark, or sextillion bytes or a trillion gigabytes (GB) by 2015, global IP traffic growth is driven by four primary factors according to Cisco, including:
- An increasing number of devices, given the widespread proliferation of tablet computers, mobile phones, connected appliances and other devices that hinge on connectivity. By 2015, Cisco estimates that there will almost 15 billion network connections via devices -- including machine-to-machine -- more than two connections for each person on earth.
- More Internet users, with 40 percent of the world's estimated population, around three billion people, logging on by 2015.
- Faster broadband speeds, with the average fixed broadband speed expected to increase four-fold from 7 megabits per second (Mbps) in 2010 to 28 Mbps in 2015. Cisco said the average broadband speed has already doubled within the past year from 3.5 Mbps to 7 Mbps.
- More online video in the form of a million video minutes – the equivalent of 674 days – that will traverse the Internet every second by 2015. The global online video community will grow by approximately 500 million users by 2015, up from more than 1 billion Internet video users in 2010.
Amongst other predictions, Cisco said global mobile Internet data traffic would increase 26 times from 2010 to 2015, to 6.3 exabytes per month (or 75 exabytes annually). However, global peer-to-peer traffic will show a declining trend, accounting for a mere 16 percent of global consumer Internet traffic, down from 40 percent in 2010. Business IP video conferencing, on the other hand, is projected to grow sixfold over the forecast period of 2010-2015, growing more than two times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 41 percent from 2010 to 2015. |